Outlook (Friday) : Stocks likely to fall today

Most European markets improved last night with small to moderate gains. The US markets declined, and suffered moderate losses. Asian markets are down this morning with small to moderate losses. The SGX nifty was down 50 points a little before our market opened.

Our market declined yesterday, and is likely fall further today in keeping with Asian markets.

The market declined on Thursday, with the sensex down 30.47 points (0.09%) at 32,370.04, the nifty 19.25 points (0.19%) at 10,121.90, and the Nifty Midcap 100 120.50 points (0.63%) at 18,934.65.

The market's breadth was negative, with 1.62 times as many declines as advances on the BSE, and 2.03 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 44.1% (64.9%) on the BSE, and 48.0% (53.6%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 52.7% (34.9%) on the BSE, and 51.6% (45.1%) on the NSE.

The number of Hotline stocks at 200-day highs fell from 17 to 11, while 200-day lows were unchanged at 0. 20-day highs fell from 40 to 24, while 20-day lows rose from 10 to 11. 5-day highs fell from 55 to 32, while 5-day lows rose from 62 to 105. The 240 Hotline stocks averaged a loss of 0.64%.

The nifty opened 2 points down, and made its session high at 0930. It then fell sharply, reached its low at 1025, but recovered to close with a smaller loss of 0.19%. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 0.63%.

The market’s intermediate trend is still up. The uptrend began from the sensex’s August 11 low of 31,128. The midcap and small-cap indices have started making new all-time highs, as are a few global indices. The levels below which the intermediate uptrend would end remain the same at 31,550 for the sensex, 9,850 for the nifty, and 18,150 for the nifty midcap 100 index. (All figures rounded down to the nearest 25 as usual).

Most global indices continue to maintain intermediate uptrends. However, London’s FTSE-100 and the Shanghai Composite Index are in downtrends. The US indices have been making fresh all-time highs during this rally.

The sensex, nifty and nifty midcap 100 indices have generally maintained rising intermediate tops and bottoms, and are above their 200-day averages - indicating that the market’s major (long-term) trend is still up. There was no change in the major trend of any of the Hotline stocks yesterday. The number of Hotline stocks below their 200-day averages went up a bit sharply from 16.7% to 18.3% yesterday.

The major trend of all major global indices is up, as they have rising tops and bottoms, and are above their 200-day moving averages. The notable exception is London’s FTSE-100, which has just fallen below its 200-dma.

The FIIs sold $166.5 million of stocks on Wednesday, and are averaging daily sales of $90.9 million over the last five sessions. The MF figure was not released. They were averaging purchases of $109.6 million up to Monday.

The Dow fell 53.36 points (0.24%) to 22,359.23, and the NASDAQ composite went down 33.35 points (0.52%) to 6,422.69

Infosys lost 1.35% at $14.64, Wipro went down 0.18% to $5.62, Cognizant Tech went down 0.83% to $71.86, Tata Motors fell 0.19% to $31.78, Vedanta went down 0.35% to $20.04, ICICI Bank went down 1.01% to $8.84, HDFC Bank went down 0.38% to $97.84, Dr. Reddy rose 5.72% to $37.72, MakeMyTrip went down 1.33% to $29.60, WNS went up 0.72% to $36.60, Yatra Online fell 1.61% to $11.64, and Sify Technologies went down 11.94% to $1.18.