Outlook (Thursday) : Further gains likely today

European markets improved last night with moderate gains. The US markets also went up and posted moderate gains with the NASDAQ outperforming the Dow.

Most Asian markets are up this morning with small to moderate gains. The SGX nifty was up 2 points at around 0900. Our market rallied smartly yesterday, and is likely to go up again today with Asian stocks in the green.

The market improved on Wednesday, with the sensex up 244.36 points (0.77%) at 31,955.35, the nifty 72.45 points (0.74%) at 9,899.60, and the Nifty Midcap 100 127.60 points (0.70%) at 18,344.20.

The market's breadth was positive, with 1.81 times as many advances as declines on the BSE, and 2.27 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 68.1% (32.4%) on the BSE, and 77.8% (42.4%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 30.8% (65.5%) on the BSE, and 21.8% (57.3%) on the NSE.

The number of Hotline stocks at 200-day highs rose from 8 to 25, while 200-day lows were unchanged at 1. 20-day highs rose from 27 to 70, while 20-day lows fell from 15 to 7. 5-day highs rose from 46 to 104, while 5-day lows fell from 71 to 26. The 240 Hotline stocks averaged a gain of 1.18%.

The nifty opened 29 points up, and dipped slightly to reach its session low at 0930. It rallied steadily for the rest of the day, and closed at its best with a solid 0.74% gain. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.70%.

The market remains in an intermediate uptrend which has just entered its third week. The uptrend started on June 30 when the sensex’s preceding intermediate downtrend bottomed out at 30,681. The levels below which an intermediate downtrend would be signalled remain 30,675 for the sensex, 9,425 for the nifty, and 17,325 for the nifty midcap 100. (Figures have been rounded up to the nearest 25).

Most major global markets are currently in intermediate uptrends. The exceptions are Shanghai - which has just entered an intermediate downtrend, and the Nikkei, which has been running sideways for almost six weeks.

The sensex, nifty and nifty midcap 100 indices are all above their last intermediate tops, as well as their 200-day averages - indicating that the market’s major (longer-term) trend is currently up. There was no change in the major trend of any of the Hotline stocks yesterday. The number of Hotline stocks below their 200-day moving averages went down from 15.9% to 14.2% yesterday.

The major trend of most major global markets are up, with their indices in rising tops and bottoms, and above their 200-day moving averages. Brazil’s BOVESPA has most recently risen above its 200-day average.

The FIIs bought $58.1 million of stocks on Tuesday, and are averaging daily purchases of $54.0 million over the last five sessions. The MFs sold $29.1 million worth, and are averaging purchases of $21.9 million.

The Dow rose 66.02 points (0.31%) to 21,640.75, and the NASDAQ composite went up 40.73 points (0.64%) to 6,385.04

Infosys went down 1.09% to $15.38, Wipro went down 0.55% to $5.44, Cognizant Tech gained 1.03% at $69.50, Tata Motors rose 2.57% to $35.90, Vedanta gained 1.54% at $17.18, ICICI Bank went down 0.21% to $9.30, HDFC Bank went up 0.84% to $91.54, Dr. Reddy went up 1.50% to $42.51, MakeMyTrip rose 4.29% to $32.80, WNS went up 0.91% to $34.51, Yatra Online went down 0.09% to $11.37, and Sify Technologies rose 9.33% to $0.82.