Outlook (Friday) : Stocks may fall today

European indices went up last night with small to moderate gains. The US indices were mixed, with the Dow posting a moderate gain and the NASDAQ a small loss. Asian markets are down this morning with small to moderate losses. The SGX Nifty was down 37 points a little before our open.

Our market was mixed again yesterday, but may be set for a decline today in keeping with Asian markets.

The market was mixed on Thursday, with the sensex down 150.20 points (0.44%) at 33,685.54, the nifty down 50.75 points (0.49%) at 10,360.15, and the Nifty Midcap 100 up 75.15 points (0.39%) at 19,258.85.

The market's breadth was positive, with 1.61 times as many advances as declines on the BSE, and 1.75 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 63.4% (53.4%) on the BSE, and 53.7% (63.5%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 36.2% (45.6%) on the BSE, and 45.7% (36.5%) on the NSE.

The number of Hotline stocks at 200-day highs were unchanged at 6, while 200-day lows fell from 3 to 1. 20-day highs rose from 21 to 23, while 20-day lows fell from 14 to 12. 5-day highs fell from 114 to 88, while 5-day lows rose from 25 to 29. The 240 Hotline stocks averaged a gain of 0.34%.

The nifty opened 5 points lower, but improved to reach its session high at 1005. It drifted slowly lower towards the end of the day, hit its low at 1415, and closed 0.49% down. The Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.39%.

All the indices are still in intermediate downtrends. The sensex and nifty have been in a downtrend since Jan 29, when the sensex topped out at its all-time high of 36,444. The midcap 100 index topped out earlier on Jan 15. The levels above which an uptrend would be triggered are the same at 34,100 for the sensex, 10,500 for the nifty, and 19,900 for the nifty midcap 100. (All figures have been rounded up to the nearest 25 as usual).

A few of the major global indices have rallied back into intermediate uptrends. These include the US indices, Shanghai, Tokyo’s Nikkei, the French CAC-40 and Brazil. Other indices are a couple of rallies away from an uptrend.

The sensex and nifty have rising intermediate tops and bottoms, and are above their 200-day averages, indicating that their long-term (major) trend is still up. The nifty midcap 100 has climbed back above its 200-day average. There was no change in the major trend of any of the Hotline stocks yesterday. The number of Hotline stocks below their 200-day averages went up from 43.5% to 45.5% yesterday.

The long-term uptrends of Shanghai and European indices had appeared to be under threat as they had gone below their previous intermediate bottoms and 200-dmas. Now, Shanghai is back above its 200-dma.

The FIIs sold $37.0 million of stocks on Wednesday, and are averaging daily purchases of $186.9 million over the last five sessions. The MF figure was not released. They were averaging sales of $3.5 million up to Monday.

The Dow rose 115.54 points (0.47%) to 24,873.66, while the NASDAQ composite went down 15.07 points (0.20%) to 7,481.74

Infosys lost 0.44% at $18.30, Wipro rose 0.36% to $5.65, Cognizant Tech rose 1.43% to $84.83, Tata Motors went down 0.77% to $27.03, Vedanta lost 1.02% at $19.42, ICICI Bank fell 0.11% to $9.39, HDFC Bank went up 1.36% to $99.85, Dr. Reddy rose 0.65% to $34.06, MTNL was unchanged at $0.51, MakeMyTrip fell 2.49% to $35.30, WNS went down 0.71% to $45.92, Yatra Online fell 3.18% to $7.00, and Sify Technologies rose 4.98% to $2.32.